Prospecting Broken?

Ok, since my last post regarding Living Rubies, I've actually been documenting my prospected gems (just rares, not all).  I had hoped to give you guys an updated article today with some hard numbers from my week of prospecting.  This morning I had maybe a dozen stacks of ore to prospect as my final batch before writing up the results.  I had like 8 stacks of Fel Iron and 4 stacks of adamantite.  I prospected the first four and got... zero rare gems.

Then I remembered a post I had read yesterday of folks talking about prospecting being broken since Tuesday's maintenance.  I thought, do I really wanna go through twelve stacks of ore and find out they are right??  Not particularly.  So I decided to bank my ore and wait until I can be sure prospecting isn't broken before I finish my test.  In the meantime, anyone else having trouble with prospecting since Tuesday.  I mean, I know it was Fel Iron, but four stacks with no blue gem is pretty scary...

Discuss :)

12 comments:

  1. Just did 10 stacks of adamantite ore,
    2 star of elune
    3 living ruby
    2 dawnstone
    3 nightseye
    1 talasite

    thats 10 rare gems.. and a talasite..

    prev to that i did 20 stacks, wich resulted in 25 blue gems..
    so ive got nothing to complain about.. cause it seems im getting more then i normally get.. (usually 6/10 :s )

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  2. The only thing that I've noticed (not sure if it is actually true) is that from stacks that I buy off the AH I get far less blue gems than stacks I mine myself. Anyone else have this? Or is it just my bad luck?


    And Kaliope, I hardly EVER get a blue gem when prospecting fel iron. I only prospect Adamantite to get blue gems.

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  3. dont play with the jewelcrafting god Kaliope





    everyone gets what he deserves *caugh*

    :P

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  4. I think is just luck :) a friend that prospecting my ores just got me a Living Ruby

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  5. I have prospected 10 stacks and received no blues. In fact that is much more the rule for me than an exception, so I now sell the ore I mine, buy cheap(er) blue gems and cut them to resell and feel like I lose less money. Am I losing out - maybe, but it is a steady, reliable income stream vs. times where I felt like I just deleted 250g for no good reason. Having said that - a JC buddy of mine heard me say how bad my luck had been and challenged me to try again. in 5 adamantite prospects, I got 3 Star of Elune. So it is really all about luck... This new 'luck' made me run to my bank and find the other two full stacks of adamantite I had in there and I proceeded to prospect away another 50g for nothing! =(

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  6. Yeah it's really all luck >_<. More often then not I'd prospect 4 stacks (I don't play enough to farm or have enough money to buy often on ah) and get absolutely nothing. There'd be other times where prospecting 4 stacks gives me a set of blue gems twice ( ex- getting a Nightseye and Living Ruby simultaneously and then a Talasite and a Star of Elune simultaneously). Then other times I'd simply get 1 blue per stack. So there is a huge amount of luck to it.

    For money-making purposes I usually let other people do the prospecting for me because I can typically buy a gem, cut it, and put it back up for a 8g-20g profit (depending on the daily fluctuations). It saves me the trouble of having to deal with the irregularities of prospecting.

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  7. You forgot to mention that Onyxia deep-breathes more! ;-) Seriously, it's just a bad luck streak. Saturday I got two new pieces of gear, and of course there was no Nightseye on the AH so I got 10 stacks of Adamantite - and got 12 rare gems, which is more than I expected.

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  8. Once I built up my gold reserves, I made a point to buy all stacks on the AH that are under 24g. (My server fluctuates from around 23-28g a stack) If that happens to be 2 stacks or 20, I buy them all. Law of averages seems to always apply, so I really like to have a VERY large pile to prospect at one time. Of course after doing that, I have to space out my AH listings on cut gems so as not to flood the market.

    As far as trends go, I saw 2 weeks straight of seemingly nothing but talasites, now I'm in a weeklong deluge of dawnstones. And the devs definitely increased the frequency of Ony's Deep Breath. ;)

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  9. Well I took a deep breath and prospected my 10 stacks of ore. I only got 4 green gems, which is a bit skimpy for me but at least I got something. Out of my 18 stacks of ore for the full week I got 4 Dawnstones, 2 Talasite, 1 Nightseye, 1 Solid Star of Elune and 1 Living Ruby. There still seems to be a notable slant towards Dawnstones and Talasites, but perhaps that's just me :)

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  10. There's nothing wrong with prospecting since Tuesday. I'm getting more than my usual amount of rares - but there will be runs with none - big runs. That's the whole thing about chance. On fel iron ore, there is only a 6% chance of any rare gem dropping. So you should need 4 stacks of ore + 5 fel iron to get 1 rare gem. On 25 stacks, you should expect only 6 rare gems from fel iron (and buckets and buckets of uncommon ones). The sale price on these probably just covers the cost of the ore - assuming you bought it on AH.

    On adamantite ore you should expect approximately 1 rare gem in 1.5 stacks (17.6% chance of dropping a rare gem on prospect). However, that whole chance thing again - you should on average get about 18 rare gems from 25 stacks of ore. So if adamantite sells for 25g per stack (about average on my server) AND rare gems average 35g per cut gem (which is probably also about average on my server), your bread and butter profit is really on the uncommon gems - selling at 1-5g per cut gem.

    If you are selling these in stacks uncut OR you are underpricing them OR horror of horrors, giving them away - you are losing out on the profitable bit of JC. Out of the same 25 stacks of ore, you would get 115 uncommon gems averaging 2g per cut gem (on my server) for 230g. You also get that lovely adamantite powder that, combined with Primal Earth make the mercurial adamantite for use in making those higher level necklaces and rings that can be sold for some lovely profit...

    Did I mention I made 1400g on JC since Tuesday?

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  11. @ Jennifer: how the h*ll do you make 1400g that fast? Could you explain it to me a bit more in detail?

    I have never made any real big profits on Jewelcrafting, so I must be doing something wrong. Perhaps I am not spending enough on it.

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  12. I think it's important with these kinds of things to note that sample variability will run rampant when things are done on a small scale. If you want to get any true idea of what the true proportions of gems per prospect are, you're going to have to prospect thousands of times to get any real idea what the true numbers are like.

    If you prospect 5 stacks of adamantite ore, you have a small but realistic chance of getting no blue gems. If you increase that number of stacks to 20, your chance of getting no blues decreases (but is still there). When you start talking about prospecting 1000's of stacks of ore, only then will you very likely end up close to the actual proportion of blue gems per prospect.

    It's a simple exercise of what statisticians call The Law of Large Numbers. Only in the long run does the relative frequency of a random variable (in this case a you would describe the random variable as getting a blue gem) become stable.

    It would be unwise to think prospecting is broken after such a small number of trials, especially one in which the chance to get a blue gem is so low (I think it's around 4% chance to get a blue with fel iron).

    Also, don't let streaks of bad luck discourage you...some day you'll probably find yourself having a streak of amazing luck. People often remember the bad luck and forget the good luck, so just because someone has a prospecting horror story doesn't mean they've never had an amazing streak they failed to mention.

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